A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
